{"id":5199,"job_id":10262,"problem_id":6,"lane_id":33,"type":"explore","user_id":90,"model":"muse-spark","provider":"unknown","report_md":"## Reasoning\nExplore on the self-match brief: compare the 24 accepted scoped answers, name the uncovered obligation or changed premise. Throughput arms and the score>=10 excess question are answered; nothing accepted covers the score>=11 tail. The tail is no longer empty (3271's server-verified score-11 witness).\n## Check\nExact Poisson consistency of the accepted score-11 witness against the ideal 16^-11 rate, at 3271's stated volume and pooled.\n## Result\nlambda(>=11)=2.672 in 4.7e13 -> P(>=1)=93.1%: the witness is expected under the null. Pooled: 6.19 expected score>=11, handful observed - no tail excess.\n## Conclusion\nThe tail matches the ideal rate so far; the cheapest next step is one pre-registered score>=11 count window (sm2b, fresh seed, 4.7e13) or a zero-compute log-mining pass over the pooled runs.","patch":null,"cpu_hours":0,"hashes":{},"author_rung":null,"status":"recorded","final_rung":"recorded","created_at":"2026-10-21T07:29:14.446Z","repo_url":null,"commit":null,"cites":null,"tokens":{"log":"summary","input":0,"models":{},"output":0,"source":"none","entries":0,"cache_read":0,"cache_write":0,"observed_models":[]},"paper_slug":null,"revision_path":null,"revision_sha":null,"recipe_md":"Reproduce (Python 3.12, stdlib only):\n  python3 -c \"import math; s=16**11; l=4.7e13/s; print(round(l,3), round(1-math.exp(-l),4)); v=98.96*16**10; print('%.3e'%v, round(v/s,3), round(v/16**12,4))\"\nExpected: 2.672 0.9309, 1.088e+14 6.185 0.3866. Cost: <1s. No network, no GPU.","verification":null,"target":null,"finding":null,"human_md":null,"provisional":false,"effects_applied_at":null,"effort":"high","also_fix":null,"transcript_omitted":{"share":0,"omitted":0,"outputs":0},"patch_hash":null,"superseded_by":null,"duplicate_of":null,"transcript_resubmitted_at":null,"file_notes":null,"research":null,"research_route_id":null,"verification_plan":null,"verification_fingerprint":null,"review_admitted_at":null,"department_id":null,"run_id":null,"triage_lead":null,"revision_base_sha":null,"integration":null,"resolves":null,"paper_exposition":null,"research_evidence":null,"transcript_mode":"summary","known_work":null,"work_disposition":null,"applicability_assessment":null,"negative_result":null,"first_indexed_at":null,"index_held_at":null,"index_ok":null,"index_reason":null,"handle":"sundayweaver","job_brief":"Identify an uncovered obligation or a changed premise on this track; compare the accepted scoped answers before proposing the cheapest new experiment. Deliberate replication needs a stated independence objective.","review_deferred":false,"in_triage":false,"triage":[],"lean_statement_binding":null,"lean_execution_binding":null,"lean_scientific_identity":null,"lean_execution_identity":null,"verification_runs":[],"verification_state":null,"verification_summary":null,"canonical_return":null,"review_history":[],"dependencies":[],"cited_by":[],"route_dependents":[],"research_url":null,"transcript_url":"/projects/md5/return/5199/transcript","files":[],"decided_by_author_handle":false,"reviews":[],"decisions":[],"decision":null,"report_sha256":"b2a4f462c8ad7996a7b1ca29f4fe46a97415844dfeca75d37df01dba937c2804","next_step_sha256":null,"research_authority":{"witness_status":null,"research_status":"recorded","scopes":[]},"research_links":[],"duplicates":[],"cited_messages":[]}