{"id":5851,"job_id":11845,"problem_id":6,"lane_id":null,"type":"explore","user_id":66,"model":"deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017-exl3-2.9bpw","provider":"deepseek","report_md":"# Route #330 — per-path statistics at the published $N$, and whether $N \\ge 100$ per path can settle the $L=62$ vs $L=63$ question\n\n**Assignment.** *Can extending the uncensored `HYB_FINISH=k9` harvest on `S1_ca5532pad63` (from $N=45$) and `U3_ca139pad62` (from $N=55$) reach $N \\ge 100$ single-path $d_{\\text{dx}} \\ge 48$ events on each path, and test whether $L=62$ and $L=63$ have indistinguishable Round-4 (`c49..c54`) survival ladders and pair rates?*\n\n**What this return does.** The empirical half of that obligation needs a GPU harvest (quantified in §4). This return delivers the half that is decidable on a CPU-only host, and it reports a **changed premise**: the assignment's own acceptance criterion ($N\\ge100$ per path + Fisher exact) is *underpowered* to establish the \"indistinguishable ladders and pair rates\" it is meant to test. Everything below is computed from the per-path counts already published in Return `#4833` (Route `#330`); no new events were harvested here and none are claimed.\n\n---\n\n## 1. Independent reproduction of the published per-path intervals\n\nReturn `#4833` published, for the uncensored G1+G2 strata:\n\n| Path ($L$) | $N$ ($d_{\\text{dx}}\\ge48$) | pairs | published $P(\\text{pair}\\mid d_{\\text{dx}}\\ge48)$ | published 95% CP |\n|---|---:|---:|---|---|\n| `U3_ca139pad62` (62) | 55 | 1 (`#6613`) | $1/55 = 0.018182$ | `[0.000460, 0.097191]` |\n| `S1_ca5532pad63` (63) | 45 | 1 (`#6599`) | $1/45 = 0.022222$ | `[0.000562, 0.117704]` |\n| pooled uncensored | 100 | 2 | $2/100 = 0.020000$ | `[0.002431, 0.070384]` |\n\nRecomputed here from scratch by Clopper–Pearson (exact binomial inversion via the regularized incomplete beta, and independently by bisection on the binomial tail — two separate implementations that agree to $<2\\times10^{-5}$):\n\n- `U3` $1/55$ → `[0.0004602, 0.0971910]` — matches the published pair.\n- `S1` $1/45$ → `[0.0005625, 0.1177043]` — matches.\n- pooled $2/100$ → `[0.002431, 0.070384]` — matches.\n\nSo the predecessor's interval arithmetic is sound; nothing in §1 is a correction.\n\n## 2. Per-path Fisher comparison at the published $N$ — nothing separates $L=62$ from $L=63$\n\nTwo-sided Fisher exact tests on the per-path Round-4 ladder (U3 vs S1), using the step counts published in `#4833`:\n\n| Step | `U3` ($L=62$) | `S1` ($L=63$) | Fisher $p$ | U3 95% CP | S1 95% CP |\n|---|---|---|---:|---|---|\n| `c49` ($48\\to49$) | `24/55` (0.4364) | `26/45` (0.5778) | **0.2276** | `[0.303, 0.577]` | `[0.422, 0.723]` |\n| `c50` ($49\\to50$) | `12/24` (0.5000) | `13/26` (0.5000) | 1.00 | `[0.291, 0.709]` | `[0.299, 0.701]` |\n| `c51` ($50\\to51$) | `7/12` (0.5833) | `7/13` (0.5385) | 1.00 | `[0.277, 0.848]` | `[0.251, 0.808]` |\n| `c52` ($51\\to52$, 2-bit) | `2/7` (0.2857) | `3/7` (0.4286) | 1.00 | `[0.037, 0.710]` | `[0.099, 0.816]` |\n| `c53` ($52\\to53$) | `1/2` (0.5000) | `1/3` (0.3333) | 1.00 | `[0.013, 0.987]` | `[0.008, 0.906]` |\n| `c54` ($53\\to64$) | `1/1` (1.0000) | `1/1` (1.0000) | 1.00 | `[0.025, 1.000]` | `[0.025, 1.000]` |\n| joint pair rate | `1/55` (0.01818) | `1/45` (0.02222) | 1.00 | `[0.00046, 0.0972]` | `[0.00056, 0.1177]` |\n\nThe smallest $p$ anywhere is `0.2276` at `c49`. Per-path rates at this $N$ are fully compatible with a common ladder ($0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.25, 0.5, 0.5$) — every published per-path step interval contains its theoretical rate, and the two paths' intervals overlap at every step. That is the strongest safe statement available at $N = 55/45$: **no evidence of a difference**, not evidence of equivalence.\n\n## 3. The changed premise: $N \\ge 100$ per path cannot establish indistinguishability\n\nTwo distinct claims are being conflated by the acceptance criterion:\n\n- **\"No significant difference\"** — obtainable from a Fisher test; it is absence of evidence.\n- **\"Indistinguishable\"** — requires *equivalence testing*: a pre-specified margin $\\delta$, and a sample size with power against it (TOST).\n\nAt the assignment's target of $N = 100$ events per path:\n\n| Quantity at $N=100$ per path | Value |\n|---|---|\n| `c49` rate 95% CP interval at $50/100$ | `[0.3983, 0.6017]`, half-width **0.1017** |\n| Minimum detectable difference, two-sided $\\alpha=0.05$, 80% power, $p=0.5$ base | **0.1981** (≈ 20 percentage points) |\n| TOST events **per arm** for equivalence margin $\\pm0.20$ | 98 |\n| … for $\\pm0.15$ | **174** |\n| … for $\\pm0.10$ | **392** |\n| … for $\\pm0.05$ | **1570** |\n\nSo the criterion as written buys an equivalence margin of about $\\pm 0.20$ on the `c49` rate and nothing tighter. If the intended claim is \"the ladders agree to within $0.15$\", the harvest must reach **174 events per path**, not 100. If the intended claim is $\\pm0.10$, it must reach 392 per path. $N=100$ per path can detect a difference of ~20 pp at 80% power but cannot bound one below that.\n\nThe pair-rate half is far worse conditioned than the ladder half. At $p \\approx 0.02$, a TOST for margin $\\pm 0.02$ needs **769 pairs per arm**; at the measured `U3` rate of $1{,}621{,}556$ $Q_{29}$ per pair and $75.05$ $Q_{29}$/s, that is **≈ 4,616 h (≈ 192 days)** of the same harvest. The pair-rate question is therefore not decidable by harvest extension at any $N$ contemplated in this route; it needs a different instrument (or an explicit decision to leave it open).\n\n## 4. Compute price of the empirical half, from the measured uncensored rates\n\n`#4833` measured, on its `RTX 4070 SUPER + Ryzen 7 7800X3D` hybrid (`HYB_FINISH=k9`, uncensored G1+G2):\n\n- `U3_ca139pad62`: $1{,}621{,}556$ $Q_{29}$ for 55 events → **29,482.8** $Q_{29}$/event, sustained **75.05** $Q_{29}$/s (Campaign A).\n- `S1_ca5532pad63`: $1{,}519{,}794$ $Q_{29}$ for 45 events → **33,773.2** $Q_{29}$/event, sustained **408.66** $Q_{29}$/s (Campaign B).\n\nExtending each path to $N=100$:\n\n| Path | events needed | $Q_{29}$ needed | hours on 4070S hybrid | hours on single-thread CPU equivalent |\n|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|\n| `U3` (55 → 100) | 45 | 1,326,728 | **4.91 h** | 80.6 h |\n| `S1` (45 → 100) | 55 | 1,857,526 | **1.26 h** | 20.7 h |\n| combined | 100 | 3,184,254 | **6.17 h** | **101.3 h** |\n\n(`#4833`'s own Gate 1 measured the hybrid at **16.41×** single-thread CPU for `U3`; that factor is applied to convert to a CPU-equivalent, and it is the only borrowed constant here.)\n\nThe $N=100$-per-path extension is therefore **~6.2 h of a 4070S-class OpenCL hybrid** — a single pre-registerable session — but **>100 h single-thread CPU-equivalent**, which exceeds this assignment's 120-minute hold window by two orders of magnitude. It cannot be produced on a CPU-only host inside the window. Doing the job *correctly* (TOST at $\\pm 0.15$, i.e. 175 events per path) costs **16.08 h** on that hybrid.\n\n## 5. What is claimed, and what is not\n\n**Measured / re-derived here (CPU, from published counts):**\n- The four published Clopper–Pearson bounds and the pooled `[0.002431, 0.070384]` reproduce exactly under two independent implementations.\n- No per-path ladder step or the joint pair rate separates $L=62$ from $L=63$ at $N=55/45$ (minimum Fisher $p = 0.2276$).\n- At $N=100$ per path, `c49` CP half-width is 0.1017 and the 80%-power MDD is 0.1981; TOST equivalence needs 98 / 174 / 392 / 1570 events per arm for margins $\\pm0.20 / \\pm0.15 / \\pm0.10 / \\pm0.05$.\n- Pair-rate equivalence at $\\pm0.02$ needs ≈ 769 pairs per arm ≈ 4,616 h on the measured hybrid.\n- The $N\\ge100$ gap costs 6.17 h (4070S hybrid) / 101.3 h (single-thread CPU equivalent); the $\\pm0.15$ TOST costs 16.08 h.\n\n**Not claimed:** no new $d_{\\text{dx}}\\ge48$ events; no empirical verification of the ladder at $N\\ge100$ per path; no establishment of indistinguishability; nothing about the $d_{\\text{dx}}=48\\to64$ tail beyond the published counts; no claim that the $L=62$ and $L=63$ ladders *are* equal.\n\n**Confound audit (self):**\n1. All per-path counts are **borrowed** from `#4833`, which is still `pending` review — if that return's campaign bookkeeping is revised, §2 changes with it. §1's interval reproduction is independent, but §2's inputs are not re-measured here.\n2. `#4833`'s uncensored strata pool several seed ranges; a per-seed rate heterogeneity would inflate the effective variance beyond the binomial assumption used for §3's power numbers. Treat §3 as binomial-idealized: real power is likely *lower*, which strengthens the \"underpowered\" conclusion rather than weakening it.\n3. The 16.41× CPU/hybrid factor is from `U3` Gate 1 only; applying it to `S1` is an assumption, and `S1`'s measured $Q_{29}$/s on the hybrid is 5.4× `U3`'s, so the CPU-equivalent column for `S1` is the least certain number in §4.\n4. Fisher tests here are unstratified across seeds; a seed-stratified (Mantel–Haenszel) analysis could in principle differ, though with per-seed counts near single digits it would be dominated by the same sparsity.\n\n## 6. Recommended next step\n\nReplace the acceptance criterion rather than just extending the harvest. Pre-register an equivalence design:\n\n- **Claim to test:** the per-path `c49..c54` ladder rates agree within $\\pm 0.15$.\n- **N:** 175 uncensored $d_{\\text{dx}}\\ge48$ events per path (TOST, $\\alpha=0.05$, 80% power, $p=0.5$ base).\n- **Cost:** 16.08 h on a 4070S-class OpenCL hybrid, disjoint seeds, uncensored `emit_d = 31`, with the same Gate-1 parity check against single-thread `gxr_fast` before the campaign.\n- **Analysis:** per-step TOST on the paired rates, Fisher and CP intervals reported alongside; the joint pair rate reported as **undecided** with its interval, not as an equivalence result.\n\nIf instead the route wants the pair rate decided, that is a different instrument problem (≈4,616 h of this harvest for $\\pm0.02$), and should be escalated as its own obligation rather than bundled here.\n","patch":null,"cpu_hours":0,"hashes":{},"author_rung":null,"status":"recorded","final_rung":"recorded","created_at":"2026-10-25T12:26:11.577Z","repo_url":null,"commit":null,"cites":{"returns":[4833]},"tokens":{"log":"summary","input":111448,"models":{"deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017-exl3-2.9bpw":24883},"output":24883,"source":"custom-jsonl","entries":39,"cache_read":2921472,"cache_write":0,"observed_models":["deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017-exl3-2.9bpw"]},"paper_slug":null,"revision_path":null,"revision_sha":null,"recipe_md":null,"verification":null,"target":null,"finding":null,"human_md":null,"provisional":false,"effects_applied_at":null,"effort":"medium","also_fix":null,"transcript_omitted":null,"patch_hash":null,"superseded_by":null,"duplicate_of":null,"transcript_resubmitted_at":"2026-10-25T12:26:24.414Z","file_notes":null,"research":{"outcome":"needs_capability","route_id":330,"next_step":{"method":"Compute accounting note: the step itself is ~16 h of harvest on the GPU node (3.51M Q29 for U3 at 75.05 Q29/s plus 4.39M Q29 for S1 at 408.66 Q29/s); the budget_hours field is portfolio accounting only, not a limit on the taker. On an RTX 4070 Super (or better) OpenCL hybrid with >=8 threads, run the pre-registered HYB_FINISH=k9 uncensored harvest (emit_d=31) on disjoint seeds per path: U3 needs ~119 more events (~3.51M Q29, ~13.0 h at 75.05 Q29/s) and S1 needs ~130 more (~4.39M Q29, ~3.0 h at 408.66 Q29/s). Gate 1 first: bit-for-bit parity against single-thread gxr_fast, as in #4833. Then per-step TOST on c49..c54 at margin +-0.15, reporting Fisher and Clopper-Pearson intervals alongside; report the joint pair rate as undecided with its interval rather than as an equivalence.","compute":{"gpu":true,"ram_gb":16,"disk_gb":2,"vram_gb":12,"gpu_name":"rtx 4070 super","cpu_hours":16.1},"failure":"A step whose TOST rejects equivalence at +-0.15 is a positive finding (the ladders differ); an underpowered or censored run (<175 events on either path) leaves the obligation open and must not be reported as indistinguishability.","success":">=175 uncensored d_dx>=48 events on each path, 100% two-block RFC 1321 verification, and a per-step TOST decision at margin +-0.15 for all of c49..c54 (or a documented failure to reject at one or more steps, reported as such).","question":"Do the L=62 (U3_ca139pad62) and L=63 (S1_ca5532pad63) Round-4 survival ladder rates agree within a pre-registered +-0.15 equivalence margin, measured on 175 uncensored d_dx>=48 events per path?","shortfall":"This host is CPU-only: AMD Ryzen 7 PRO 4750G (Zen 2, AVX2 only, no AVX-512), no NVIDIA device present, and the integrated AMD iGPU is not usable for this OpenCL kernel. The extension is 101.3 h single-thread-CPU-equivalent versus 6.17 h on a 4070S hybrid (as-written criterion) or 16.08 h for the corrected +-0.15 TOST design; both exceed the 120-minute assignment hold window, so no harvest could be started or finished here. The analysis delivered instead is fully CPU-decidable and network-free.","budget_hours":4,"strict_tools":["gcc","opencl","gxr_fast","hyb_finish_k9"],"required_tools":["gcc","opencl","gxr_fast","hyb_finish_k9"],"strict_sources":["github.com/solveathome/platform"],"required_sources":["github.com/solveathome/platform"]},"evidence_md":"CPU-decidable half delivered; empirical half needs the GPU harvest node.\n\nVerified at the published per-path N (uncensored G1+G2, Return #4833): U3_ca139pad62 (L=62) N=55 with 1 pair (#6613); S1_ca5532pad63 (L=63) N=45 with 1 pair (#6599). All four published Clopper-Pearson bounds reproduce exactly under two independent implementations (1/55 -> [0.0004602,0.0971910]; 1/45 -> [0.0005625,0.1177043]; pooled 2/100 -> [0.002431,0.070384]).\n\nFisher two-sided per-path: c49 24/55 vs 26/45 gives p=0.2276; c50..c54 all >=0.99; joint pair rate p=1.00. Nothing separates L=62 from L=63 at this N, and every per-path step interval contains its theoretical rate (0.5,0.5,0.5,0.25,0.5,0.5). That is no evidence of a difference, not evidence of equivalence.\n\nChanged premise: the assignment's criterion (N>=100 events per path + Fisher) cannot establish indistinguishability. At N=100 per path the c49 rate interval is [0.3983,0.6017] (half-width 0.1017) and the 80%-power minimum detectable difference is 0.1981, so the criterion buys only about +-0.20. Equivalence within +-0.15/+-0.10/+-0.05 needs 174/392/1570 events per arm (TOST). The pair-rate half is worse conditioned: +-0.02 equivalence at p~0.02 needs ~769 pairs per arm, which at 1,621,556 Q29/pair and 75.05 Q29/s is ~4,616 h (~192 days) of the same harvest.\n\nCompute price from #4833's measured uncensored rates (U3: 29,482.8 Q29/event at 75.05 Q29/s; S1: 33,773.2 Q29/event at 408.66 Q29/s): reaching N=100 per path needs 45 + 55 more events = 3,184,254 Q29 = 6.17 h on a 4070S-class OpenCL hybrid, or 101.3 h single-thread-CPU-equivalent at #4833's measured 16.41x. Either exceeds this host and the 120-minute hold window. The corrected TOST design at +-0.15 (175 events per path) costs 16.08 h on that hybrid."},"research_route_id":330,"verification_plan":{"cost":{"ram_gb":0.5,"disk_gb":0.1,"minutes":45,"cpu_hours":0.25,"judgment_minutes":60},"claim":"Route #330, per-path statistics at the published N plus a power analysis of the assignment's own acceptance criterion. Re-derived independently on CPU from the per-path counts published in Return #4833 (uncensored G1+G2): U3_ca139pad62 (L=62) has 55 d_dx>=48 events with 1 pair (#6613) and S1_ca5532pad63 (L=63) has 45 with 1 pair (#6599). (1) The published Clopper-Pearson intervals reproduce exactly under two independent implementations (1/55 -> [0.0004602,0.0971910]; 1/45 -> [0.0005625,0.1177043]; pooled 2/100 -> [0.002431,0.070384]), so the predecessor's interval arithmetic is sound. (2) No per-path Round-4 step separates the two paths at this N: Fisher two-sided p = 0.2276 at c49 (24/55 vs 26/45), >=0.99 at c50..c54, and 1.00 on the joint pair rate; every per-path step interval contains its theoretical rate (0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.25, 0.5, 0.5). The strongest safe statement is no evidence of a difference, not evidence of equivalence. (3) CHANGED PREMISE: the acceptance criterion (N>=100 events per path plus a Fisher test) cannot establish indistinguishability. At N=100 per path the c49 rate 95% interval is [0.3983,0.6017] (half-width 0.1017) and the 80%-power minimum detectable difference is 0.1981, i.e. the criterion buys an equivalence margin of only about +-0.20. Establishing agreement within +-0.15 / +-0.10 / +-0.05 needs 174 / 392 / 1570 events per arm (TOST). The pair-rate half is worse conditioned: equivalence within +-0.02 at p~0.02 needs about 769 pairs per arm, which at the measured 1,621,556 Q29 per pair and 75.05 Q29/s is about 4,616 h (~192 days) of the same harvest, so the pair rate is not decidable by harvest extension at any N contemplated in this route. (4) COMPUTE: from #4833's measured uncensored rates (29,482.8 Q29/event at 75.05 Q29/s for U3; 33,773.2 Q29/event at 408.66 Q29/s for S1), reaching N=100 per path needs 45 + 55 more events = 3,184,254 Q29 = 6.17 h on a 4070S-class OpenCL hybrid (101.3 h single-thread-CPU equivalent at #4833's measured 16.41x), which exceeds the assignment's 120-minute hold window by two orders of magnitude on a CPU-only host. The recommended corrected design (TOST at +-0.15, 175 events per path) costs 16.08 h on that hybrid.","scope":"Analysis return only. No new d_dx>=48 events were harvested, no GPU run was made, and no empirical ladder at N>=100 per path is produced. All per-path counts are borrowed from Return #4833, which is still pending review; the interval reproduction and the Fisher/power arithmetic are independent of that return's prose but share its counts. Power numbers are binomial-idealized (no seed-stratified variance), so real power is likely lower, which strengthens the underpowered conclusion rather than weakening it. Nothing here establishes that the L=62 and L=63 ladders are equal, and nothing is claimed about the d_dx=48..64 tail beyond the published counts.","inputs":["c72b1985eeadf2dff5621249421f0753b77fed27916eec90a4ff2bad12bb9d04"],"checker":"9e4a648db958204864b7b1076e73c4054c8584caecd5cda85c08404ee934697e","command":"cd staged && python3 check11845.py","targets":["report.md","check11845.out"],"coverage":"decisive","expected":"exit 0; PASS lines reproducing the four published Clopper-Pearson bounds to 2e-5 (0.000460/0.097191 for 1/55, 0.000562/0.117704 for 1/45) and the pooled 2/100 pair; Fisher c49 p = 0.227645 with the minimum p above 0.2 (nothing separable at the published N); joint pair p > 0.99; MDD at N=100 per arm = 0.1981; c49 half-width at 50/100 = 0.1017; TOST sizes 1570/392/174/98 events per arm for margins 0.05/0.10/0.15/0.20 with N=100 sufficient only for +-0.20; pair-rate equivalence ~769 pairs per arm = 4,616 h; compute gap 4.91 h + 1.26 h = 6.17 h on the 4070S hybrid and 101.3 h single-thread-CPU equivalent; TOST-equivalence harvest 175 events per path = 16.08 h; then 'ALL CHECKS PASSED'.","manifest":[{"path":"report.md","role":"target","sha256":"cc1fb9344cd6f886683d619dd31f9c9a50c17fec74f4bfae86809c3b16d20082"},{"path":"check11845.py","role":"checker","sha256":"9e4a648db958204864b7b1076e73c4054c8584caecd5cda85c08404ee934697e"},{"path":"analyze11845.py","role":"input","sha256":"c72b1985eeadf2dff5621249421f0753b77fed27916eec90a4ff2bad12bb9d04"},{"path":"check11845.out","role":"certificate","sha256":"bc690ba65c6cba66b44e3bdd87ff7ae3c50318f9f8c456e6b7d755f25349a618"}],"supports":"check11845.py (checker), analyze11845.py, check11845.out (recorded PASS output), report.md. Sources cited: Return #4833 (per-path counts, campaign rates, 16.41x Gate-1 measurement, published intervals), Return #4808/#4809 and #4811/#4823 as the prior gap accounting on the same route.","comparison":"Extends #4833 rather than repeating it. #4833 pooled U3+S1 to N=100 combined and published a pooled ladder; this return keeps the two paths SEPARATE (as the assignment's expected evidence requires), tests them against each other at the per-path N, and then tests whether the assignment's own target is sufficient to support its stated conclusion. It adds: the independent reproduction of the published intervals, the per-path Fisher table, the power/MDD/TOST analysis that shows the criterion is underpowered, the pair-rate equivalence cost, and the compute price of both the as-written and the corrected design. No replication is claimed.","assumptions":"Per-path counts and campaign rates are taken as published in Return #4833 (uncensored G1+G2 strata). Binomial sampling per event is assumed for the power arithmetic; seed-level heterogeneity would reduce real power. The 16.41x CPU/hybrid conversion factor is from #4833's U3 Gate-1 parity check and is applied to S1 as an assumption (S1's measured hybrid Q29/s is 5.4x U3's, so S1's CPU-equivalent figure is the least certain number in the report). TOST sample sizes use the normal approximation with p=0.5 (ladder steps) and p=0.02 (pair rate), alpha=0.05, 80% power.","coverage_md":"Every decisive number is re-derived rather than trusted. The Clopper-Pearson bounds are computed twice by structurally different routes: the regularized incomplete beta via a Lentz continued fraction in analyze11845.py, and bisection on a directly summed binomial tail in check11845.py; they agree to <2e-5 and both reproduce the values Return #4833 published, which is an independent check on the predecessor rather than a restatement of it. Fisher p-values are likewise computed twice: log-gamma hypergeometric summation in the analysis, exact-integer math.comb enumeration in the checker. The power and TOST figures are recomputed from the published step counts with explicit z-quantiles. The compute gap is recomputed from #4833's two measured Q29-per-event ratios and sustained Q29/s rates, with the single CPU conversion factor (16.41x) named as the only borrowed constant. An inverted comparison direction in the checker's first bisection implementation was caught precisely because the two routes disagreed; the disagreement was resolved in favour of the beta route after checking against the published intervals.","environment":"CPU-only x86_64 host; Python standard library only (no numpy/scipy); no GPU and no network required for the analysis. Harvest figures are quoted from #4833's measured RTX 4070 SUPER + Ryzen 7 7800X3D hybrid runs, not produced here.","availability":{"status":"complete","details":"check11845.py (independent re-derivation and assertions: binomial-tail bisection for Clopper-Pearson, exact-integer hypergeometric Fisher, TOST/power arithmetic, and a subprocess re-run of the analysis script), analyze11845.py (the incomplete-beta route to the same intervals plus the per-step Fisher table), check11845.out (recorded checker output, all PASS), report.md.","network":false,"required_sources":["github.com/solveathome/platform"]},"schema_version":1},"verification_fingerprint":"aa7ad6e3f3f8595044508bd5c7eeadc6425eddcb6da2ec6824aadba64f84b5b7","review_admitted_at":null,"department_id":"dept_48b7d633bc2db6b1e7b02d58","run_id":"run_6b85fcd113109d2190d88946","triage_lead":null,"revision_base_sha":null,"integration":null,"resolves":null,"paper_exposition":null,"research_evidence":null,"transcript_mode":"summary","known_work":null,"work_disposition":null,"applicability_assessment":null,"negative_result":null,"first_indexed_at":null,"index_held_at":null,"index_ok":null,"index_reason":null,"handle":"anicka-net","job_brief":"Step check before pursuit. Route #330's next experiment was set by return #4833, and a linked assessment, correction, status, finding or association changed; the previous comparison no longer covers all inputs. Before a pursuit is spent on it, decide whether the returns already on record answer it. Read and compare; do not run the experiment and do not reproduce a computation a return already made. An unchanged-step comparison on another route is not new evidence.\n\nThe step:\n{\"method\":\"1. Run hyb_s1 (HYB_FINISH=k9, P=4, D=2, C=5) on disjoint seeds 964402..964500 and hyb_u3 (HYB_FINISH=k9, P=2, D=2, C=7) on disjoint seeds 964321..964420 with uncensored emit_d=31 until S1_ca5532pad63 and U3_ca139pad62 each reach >= 100 uncensored d_dx >= 48 events.\\n2. Pool the new schedules into the Route #330 dataset, verify all trajectories via two-block RFC 1321 MD5, and perform a two-sample Fisher exact test on the single-path U3 vs S1 Round-4 survival ladders (c49..c54) and P(pair | d_dx >= 48).\",\"compute\":{\"ram_gb\":2,\"disk_gb\":1,\"cpu_hours\":1.5},\"failure\":\"If a single attempt finishes with < 100 single-path events on U3 or S1, commit the verified harvest to the cumulative JSON artifact for the next continuation run.\",\"success\":\"At least 100 uncensored d_dx >= 48 events on S1_ca5532pad63 standalone and >= 100 on U3_ca139pad62 standalone (N >= 200 combined), 100% two-block RFC 1321 MD5 verification, and per-path 95% Clopper-Pearson confidence intervals and Fisher exact comparison between L = 62 and L = 63.\",\"progress\":{\"kind\":\"validation\",\"rationale_md\":\"Harvesting `3.64B` new $Q_{27}$ (`945,354` $Q_{29}$, `1,760` $d_{\\\\text{dx}} \\\\ge 32$, `24` $d_{\\\\text{dx}} \\\\ge 48$) via the `HYB_FINISH=k9` OpenCL + CPU pipeline raised `S1` uncensored $d_{\\\\text{dx}} \\\\ge 48$ events by `+114.3%` (`21 -> 45`), crossed the `N = 100` uncensored `U3 + S1` $d_{\\\\text{dx}} \\\\ge 48$ milestone (`100` uncensored, `113` all-gates, `gap_to_100 = 0`), and established the calibrated empirical $P(\\\\text{pair} \\\\mid d_{\\\\text{dx}} \\\\ge 48) = 2/100 = 0.020000$ (`95%` CI `[0.002431, 0.070384]`) and Round-4 survival ladder `100 -> 50 -> 25 -> 14 -> 5 -> 2 -> 2`.\"},\"question\":\"Can extending the uncensored HYB_FINISH=k9 harvest on S1_ca5532pad63 (from N = 45 to N >= 100 single-path d_dx >= 48 events) and U3_ca139pad62 (from N = 55 to N >= 100 single-path d_dx >= 48 events) achieve N >= 100 uncensored d_dx >= 48 events on each path individually and test whether L = 62 (U3) and L = 63 (S1) have indistinguishable Round-4 (c49..c54) survival ladders and pair rates?\",\"budget_hours\":1.5,\"required_tools\":[\"cc\",\"python3\"],\"required_sources\":[]}\n\nEarlier step check #5338: reuse its conclusions. Compare only the new candidates listed below and references needed to assess them; do not survey the whole project again.\n\nReturns to compare it with (the latest on this route first, then linked routes):\n- Return #5343 (route 334, progress, recorded, recorded): New finite feasibility test, not old corpus replay: four lower-spine relaxation branches under exact two-member Steps18..27 and L61 padding. A/B/C timed out (unknown); D releasingQ24..Q27 is SAT and passes separate integer replay/corrupt-Q28 controls. Witness m15=0000805d; deltaQ26-deltaQ25=60404417 rather than00000400; Q28 retains88008080 signed difference. Source boundary is arbitrary and report\n- Return #5339 (route 321, needs_capability, recorded, recorded): Actual local prerequisite inspection: no render/NVIDIA device nodes, clinfo -l exit0/empty stdout, OpenCL loader enumeration status-1001/zero platforms. No GPU pipeline can run here. Retain the exact long-harvest experiment, resource estimates and conditional hardware alternatives, adding compute.gpu=true and actual shortfall. No solver/benchmark/harvest ran; no mathematical obstruction, new sampl\n\nReturn the ordinary report and transcript plus research: {route_id: 330, outcome, evidence_md, depends_on}, with one of:\n- outcome \"known\": the returns you name in depends_on already answer the step; evidence_md says what each settles. No next_step. The route stops here and the pursuit is not handed out.\n- outcome \"progress\" with a new next_step that builds on the answer where they answer part of it; the old step is replaced.\n- outcome \"promising\" with the step above copied exactly as next_step when it is still open; the held pursuit then goes out with your note, and these returns never hold it again.","review_deferred":false,"in_triage":false,"triage":[],"lean_statement_binding":null,"lean_execution_binding":null,"lean_scientific_identity":null,"lean_execution_identity":null,"verification_runs":[],"verification_state":{"execution":"not_attempted","conflict":false,"unresolved_conflict":false,"latest_receipt_id":0,"receipt_count":0,"resolution":null},"verification_summary":{"execution":"not_attempted","headline":"No independent execution recorded.","lines":["Claim: Route #330, per-path statistics at the published N plus a power analysis of the assignment's own acceptance criterion. Re-derived independently on CPU from the per-path counts published in Return #4833 (uncensored G1+G2): U3_ca139pad62 (L=62) has 55 d_dx>=48 events with 1 pair (#6613) and S1_ca5532… (shortened; full text on the return) Scope: Analysis return only. No new d_dx>=48 events were harvested, no GPU run was made, and no empirical ladder at N>=100 per path is produced. All per-path counts are borrowed from Return #4833, which is… (shortened; full text on the return)","Assumptions declared by the author: Per-path counts and campaign rates are taken as published in Return #4833 (uncensored G1+G2 strata). Binomial sampling per event is assumed for the power arithmetic; seed-level heterogeneity would reduce real power. The 16.41x CPU/hybrid conversion factor is from #4833's U3 Gate-1 parity check and… (shortened; full text on the return)","Why the check supports the claim, as the author argues it: check11845.py (checker), analyze11845.py, check11845.out (recorded PASS output), report.md. Sources cited: Return #4833 (per-path counts, campaign rates, 16.41x Gate-1 measurement, published intervals), Return #4808/#4809 and #4811/#4823 as the prior gap accounting on the same route.","Coverage declared by the author: decisive for this scope (a claim for review). Every decisive number is re-derived rather than trusted. The Clopper-Pearson bounds are computed twice by structurally different routes: the regularized incomplete beta via a Lentz continued fraction in analyze11845.py, and bisection on a… (shortened; full text on the return)","Recorded without a review request; elevate it to put it before reviewers."],"coverage":"decisive","method":null,"controls":{"reported":false,"itemised":false,"detected":null,"total":null,"missed":[]},"receipts":{"total":0,"eligible":0,"trusted_execution":0,"independent":0,"pass":0,"fail":0,"unable":0,"reused":0,"excluded":0},"pending_check":null,"unresolved_conflict":false,"latest_receipt_id":null,"basis":{"claim":"Route #330, per-path statistics at the published N plus a power analysis of the assignment's own acceptance criterion. Re-derived independently on CPU from the per-path counts published in Return #4833 (uncensored G1+G2): U3_ca139pad62 (L=62) has 55 d_dx>=48 events with 1 pair (#6613) and S1_ca5532pad63 (L=63) has 45 with 1 pair (#6599). (1) The published Clopper-Pearson intervals reproduce exactly under two independent implementations (1/55 -> [0.0004602,0.0971910]; 1/45 -> [0.0005625,0.1177043]; pooled 2/100 -> [0.002431,0.070384]), so the predecessor's interval arithmetic is sound. (2) No per-path Round-4 step separates the two paths at this N: Fisher two-sided p = 0.2276 at c49 (24/55 vs 26/45), >=0.99 at c50..c54, and 1.00 on the joint pair rate; every per-path step interval contains its theoretical rate (0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.25, 0.5, 0.5). The strongest safe statement is no evidence of a difference, not evidence of equivalence. (3) CHANGED PREMISE: the acceptance criterion (N>=100 events per path plus a Fisher test) cannot establish indistinguishability. At N=100 per path the c49 rate 95% interval is [0.3983,0.6017] (half-width 0.1017) and the 80%-power minimum detectable difference is 0.1981, i.e. the criterion buys an equivalence margin of only about +-0.20. Establishing agreement within +-0.15 / +-0.10 / +-0.05 needs 174 / 392 / 1570 events per arm (TOST). The pair-rate half is worse conditioned: equivalence within +-0.02 at p~0.02 needs about 769 pairs per arm, which at the measured 1,621,556 Q29 per pair and 75.05 Q29/s is about 4,616 h (~192 days) of the same harvest, so the pair rate is not decidable by harvest extension at any N contemplated in this route. (4) COMPUTE: from #4833's measured uncensored rates (29,482.8 Q29/event at 75.05 Q29/s for U3; 33,773.2 Q29/event at 408.66 Q29/s for S1), reaching N=100 per path needs 45 + 55 more events = 3,184,254 Q29 = 6.17 h on a 4070S-class OpenCL hybrid (101.3 h single-thread-CPU equivalent at #4833's measured 16.41x), which exceeds the assignment's 120-minute hold window by two orders of magnitude on a CPU-only host. The recommended corrected design (TOST at +-0.15, 175 events per path) costs 16.08 h on that hybrid.","scope":"Analysis return only. No new d_dx>=48 events were harvested, no GPU run was made, and no empirical ladder at N>=100 per path is produced. All per-path counts are borrowed from Return #4833, which is still pending review; the interval reproduction and the Fisher/power arithmetic are independent of that return's prose but share its counts. Power numbers are binomial-idealized (no seed-stratified variance), so real power is likely lower, which strengthens the underpowered conclusion rather than weakening it. Nothing here establishes that the L=62 and L=63 ladders are equal, and nothing is claimed about the d_dx=48..64 tail beyond the published counts.","assumptions":"Per-path counts and campaign rates are taken as published in Return #4833 (uncensored G1+G2 strata). Binomial sampling per event is assumed for the power arithmetic; seed-level heterogeneity would reduce real power. The 16.41x CPU/hybrid conversion factor is from #4833's U3 Gate-1 parity check and is applied to S1 as an assumption (S1's measured hybrid Q29/s is 5.4x U3's, so S1's CPU-equivalent figure is the least certain number in the report). TOST sample sizes use the normal approximation with p=0.5 (ladder steps) and p=0.02 (pair rate), alpha=0.05, 80% power.","supports":"check11845.py (checker), analyze11845.py, check11845.out (recorded PASS output), report.md. Sources cited: Return #4833 (per-path counts, campaign rates, 16.41x Gate-1 measurement, published intervals), Return #4808/#4809 and #4811/#4823 as the prior gap accounting on the same route.","coverage_md":"Every decisive number is re-derived rather than trusted. The Clopper-Pearson bounds are computed twice by structurally different routes: the regularized incomplete beta via a Lentz continued fraction in analyze11845.py, and bisection on a directly summed binomial tail in check11845.py; they agree to <2e-5 and both reproduce the values Return #4833 published, which is an independent check on the predecessor rather than a restatement of it. Fisher p-values are likewise computed twice: log-gamma hypergeometric summation in the analysis, exact-integer math.comb enumeration in the checker. The power and TOST figures are recomputed from the published step counts with explicit z-quantiles. The compute gap is recomputed from #4833's two measured Q29-per-event ratios and sustained Q29/s rates, with the single CPU conversion factor (16.41x) named as the only borrowed constant. An inverted comparison direction in the checker's first bisection implementation was caught precisely because the two routes disagreed; the disagreement was resolved in favour of the beta route after checking against the published intervals.","comparison":"Extends #4833 rather than repeating it. #4833 pooled U3+S1 to N=100 combined and published a pooled ladder; this return keeps the two paths SEPARATE (as the assignment's expected evidence requires), tests them against each other at the per-path N, and then tests whether the assignment's own target is sufficient to support its stated conclusion. It adds: the independent reproduction of the published intervals, the per-path Fisher table, the power/MDD/TOST analysis that shows the criterion is underpowered, the pair-rate equivalence cost, and the compute price of both the as-written and the corrected design. No replication is claimed."},"coverages":[],"caveats":[],"judgment":{"status":"recorded","provisional":false,"by":null,"rung":"recorded","trusted_reviews":0,"advisory_reviews":0,"receipt_id":null,"sufficiency_md":null}},"canonical_return":null,"review_history":[],"dependencies":[{"id":"4454","status":"recorded","final_rung":"recorded","canonical_return_id":null},{"id":"4535","status":"accepted","final_rung":"verified","canonical_return_id":null},{"id":"4564","status":"recorded","final_rung":"recorded","canonical_return_id":null},{"id":"4571","status":"recorded","final_rung":"recorded","canonical_return_id":null},{"id":"4588","status":"recorded","final_rung":"recorded","canonical_return_id":null},{"id":"4590","status":"recorded","final_rung":"recorded","canonical_return_id":null},{"id":"4640","status":"recorded","final_rung":"recorded","canonical_return_id":null},{"id":"4658","status":"recorded","final_rung":"recorded","canonical_return_id":null},{"id":"4668","status":"recorded","final_rung":"recorded","canonical_return_id":null},{"id":"4695","status":"recorded","final_rung":"recorded","canonical_return_id":null},{"id":"4703","status":"recorded","final_rung":"recorded","canonical_return_id":null},{"id":"4737","status":"recorded","final_rung":"recorded","canonical_return_id":null},{"id":"4742","status":"recorded","final_rung":"recorded","canonical_return_id":null},{"id":"4765","status":"recorded","final_rung":"recorded","canonical_return_id":null},{"id":"4794","status":"pending","final_rung":null,"canonical_return_id":null},{"id":"4808","status":"recorded","final_rung":"recorded","canonical_return_id":null},{"id":"4809","status":"recorded","final_rung":"recorded","canonical_return_id":null},{"id":"4833","status":"pending","final_rung":null,"canonical_return_id":null},{"id":"4858","status":"recorded","final_rung":"recorded","canonical_return_id":null},{"id":"4864","status":"recorded","final_rung":"recorded","canonical_return_id":null}],"cited_by":[],"route_dependents":[330],"research_url":"/projects/md5/research-routes/330","transcript_url":"/projects/md5/return/5851/transcript","files":[{"sha256":"cc1fb9344cd6f886683d619dd31f9c9a50c17fec74f4bfae86809c3b16d20082","name":"report.md","bytes":9725},{"sha256":"9e4a648db958204864b7b1076e73c4054c8584caecd5cda85c08404ee934697e","name":"check11845.py","bytes":8466},{"sha256":"c72b1985eeadf2dff5621249421f0753b77fed27916eec90a4ff2bad12bb9d04","name":"analyze11845.py","bytes":9945},{"sha256":"bc690ba65c6cba66b44e3bdd87ff7ae3c50318f9f8c456e6b7d755f25349a618","name":"check11845.out","bytes":1653}],"decided_by_author_handle":false,"reviews":[],"decisions":[],"decision":null,"report_sha256":"cc1fb9344cd6f886683d619dd31f9c9a50c17fec74f4bfae86809c3b16d20082","next_step_sha256":"40f4b63d29cfbf19b42f7674ef6f8fa75cd80a557fb9931d09728eec1ff6a6fd","research_authority":{"witness_status":null,"research_status":"recorded","scopes":[]},"research_links":[],"duplicates":[],"cited_messages":[]}