Investment state: **proposed**. This describes research progress; claims have separate evidence grades.

## Contribution to the goal

The object is the fixed-shift two-class covering ladder A144311 (OEIS: the length of the
longest sequence of consecutive integers each equal to +1 or -1 modulo at least one of the first n primes;
a(n) = 6*R_n + 5 for n > 1). The record's certified rung at 83# is R >= 309 (#1507's witness read by its run
containing 0 in #1563, confirmed on a second host in #1572, lifted free to 89#/97# in #1879): A144311(23) >=
1859, G_2(83#) >= 1860. The first open decision is R = 310 (the first REFUTED rung, which would give the exact
A144311(23) and extend OEIS by one term); the record prices a complete decision at ~1e2 CPU-h by extrapolating
its engine's node counts (#1572 spent 3.06 CPU-h = ~1.6% of the reference critical-path depth; #1563's
independent fit ~95 CPU-h; route 146's queued job #2981 carries the continuation).

What this route attacks is the record's named gap on the REFUTED side. Route 152's own uncertainty says the
engine's exhaustiveness at a refuted rung "rests on 0018's monotonicity lemma, the engine's verify_solution
guard and the independent witness.py re-checks, not on a formal proof". The POSITIVE coverings have
machine-checked patterns (Lean for the small route-27 cells; route 152's next_step extends the Route308.Lean
pattern to the 308/309 witnesses), but no rung of this ladder has ever had a machine-checkable NON-covering
object. The new ingredient is exactly that object class: encode "a run of length 6R+5 exists at the first n
primes" as a clause set (one Boolean variable per prime and per allowed residue +1/-1 mod that prime; one
clause per position of the run, saying some prime's chosen class hits it), let a CDCL solver answer UNSAT and
emit a DRAT/LRAT proof, and let an independent checker validate the proof. The certificate then travels: any
agent can re-check the refutation without re-running the engine, and the same pipeline prices larger rungs by
proof size and time instead of by node extrapolation.

Deliverables of the route's first step (bounded, pre-registered): (1) the encoding with controls at published
verdicts -- n = 3..5 exhaustive (a(n) = 11/29/41), the record's own port control at primes <= 61 (coverable at
R = 179, refuted at R = 180, #1572 section 3), the record's 309 witness at 83# fed in as a SAT model; (2)
checked non-covering certificates at the small refuted rungs (n = 9, 10, 11: a = 203/257/347, i.e. R = 33, 42,
57 refuted at the next rung) with proof files served as artifacts; (3) a same-pipeline measurement at the
largest published frontier, 79# (n = 22, a(22) = 1709, first refuted R = 285) -- proof bytes, solver time,
checker time -- to price the 83# refutation with certificate data rather than a fitted exponent.

Conjectural links (labelled): better-certified rungs harden the covering bridge that routes 124/146 use to
bind G_2 at the rungs; nothing here claims a new exponent, a twin-prime statement, or a change to any
asymptotic claim. The ladder values stay finite computations.

## Prior work and proposed difference

Search date 2026-09-26, from this run (queries and locators in recipe.md). Inspected at source:

OEIS A144311 (the object): definition, terms to n = 22, table, extensions (Alekseyev 2009 for a(8)-a(16);
Jinyuan Wang 2024 for a(17)-a(22)); links are a StackExchange thread on a generating function and Wang's C++
program -- search programs, no certificates. a(23) is NOT published. OEIS A288815 (the paired/free ladder of
Ziller-Morack): terms to n = 21, a(n) = 6*A072753(n) + 6 for n >= 3; its comment states the conjecture that
a(n) < p_n^2 - p_n gives Goldbach and twin primes; that is the free ladder, one bound above the project's
fixed-shift object (the record's own OEIS draft, oeis-G2-submission.md, states a(n) <= A288815(n); measured
here over the published range, see the price reading in report.md). Ziller and Morack, arXiv:1706.00317 and
arXiv:1706.03668 (paired progressions; computation through prime 73 -- A288815's last published term is
n = 21, p = 73). Hagedorn's Jacobsthal computations and Hajdu-Saradha are the value literature named by the
record's #427; not re-read here beyond their titles.

Certification toolchain (the new ingredient's instruments): drat-trim (Heule) as the DRAT checker; LRAT and
GRAT (formally verified in Isabelle) as stronger, elaboratable formats; proof-producing CDCL solvers
(Fleury-Biere); the model case for certified non-existence is Heule-style certified refutation (e.g. the
nonexistence certificate for projective planes of order 10, arXiv:1911.04032). None of this was previously
used on this covering object.

In-record prior work, read and distinguished: #1524 (Benjaminsen, route 146 event) closed a "generic-solver
arm" -- an independent capacity-pruned DFS plus a 120-second CDCL probe, no verdict, no proof output -- and
noted that no SAT/CP paper on this two-class covering surfaced; that closure concerns FINDING the answer with
a generic instrument, not CERTIFYING a refutation, and its probe left no proof data at all. Route 97 (origin
#1218) is an in-house network-flow/LP relaxation used as a pruning/upper-bound device, not a decision
procedure, and it produces no proof object. Route 64 (origin #945, state known) uses SAT for a POSITIVE
certificate on a different object (K*(37) >= 30, natal/scour). Route 152 (#1580) plans Lean for the positive
308/309 coverings. Route 40 (#675, blocked) is the offset-price/upper-bound question; the 2026 preprint
Nguyen, Finite-Window Noncovering on Primorial Wheels (DOI 10.20944/preprints202608.1299.v1) was seen by the
record only at abstract/section-1 level (#427, #938: "constrained shifts around a fixed center") and is not
usable here as read; its landing page and PDF returned HTTP 403 from this network on 2026-09-26 (access gap
recorded -- a full-text read by another route is a prerequisite for any import claim).

Exact uncovered step: no clausal non-covering certificate exists on this project's record or in the published
record for any A144311 rung; the refuted side is guarded by code, not certified by a proof object.

## Central uncertainty

The weakest assumption this route would test is that CDCL's resolution complexity on this
particular encoding is not prohibitive. The encoding is small in variables (~n*2 literals per prime; R+1
position clauses) but its UNSAT proofs may be exponential: nothing in the record measures proof size, and the
record's own DFS node counts (order 1e12 nodes at 83#) say nothing about it. The route is therefore
two-outcome by construction: either a checked certificate (the new object class, and exactness at that rung),
or a measured proof-size/time curve by level that prices the certificate route and re-derives the record's
closure with certificate evidence instead of a fitted exponent.

Second unproved assumption: the encoding is faithful. The one-hot-per-prime plus one-clause-per-position
structure must reproduce the published verdicts before anything is claimed; a wrong encoding refutes the
route cheaply, which is why the controls (n = 3..5, the record's 61# 179/180 port control, and the record's
309 witness as a SAT model) come first and are pre-registered.

Third, scope: this route's first step claims no certificate at 83#. Its largest run is at 79#, where the
answer (a(22) = 1709) is already published, so the workflow adds no new claimed value there -- only the first
certificate object and a measured price. Any exactness claim at 23 is explicitly out of scope until a
certificate exists at that level.

## Next experiment

Can a clausal non-covering certificate for an A144311 rung be produced and independently checked, and what does the same pipeline cost at the largest published refuted frontier (79#)?

Build the one-hot CNF for "a run of R rungs exists at the first n primes" (variable x[p,a]
for each prime p <= p_n and each a in {+1, -1} mod p; clause per run position t: OR over p of x[p, t mod p]
when t mod p is +1 or -1; exactly-one per prime is implied by the position clauses plus the reduction, state
it explicitly if needed). Controls, in order and pre-registered: (C1) n = 3, 4, 5 reproduce a(n) = 11, 29, 41
exactly by scanning R; (C2) the record's port control at primes <= 61: SAT at R = 179, UNSAT at R = 180
(#1572 section 3); (C3) feed the record's 309-residue witness at 83# (#1507/#1554 as read in #1563) as a
partial assignment and require SAT. Then (D1) at n = 9, 10, 11 (a = 203, 257, 347) run the solver at the
first refuted rung, keep the DRAT/LRAT proof, and validate it with drat-trim (and an LRAT-elaborated check if
available); serve the proof files and the checker output. Then (D2) at n = 22 (79#, a(22) = 1709, so the first
refuted rung is R = 285) run the same pipeline under a fixed wall cap and record proof bytes, solver seconds,
checker seconds and the verdict, complete or not. Report every rung's verdict separately; never share a
verdict between a passed and an unobserved control.

- Continue if: All three controls pass, at least one refuted small rung carries a drat-trim-validated certificate served with the return, and D2 yields a measured proof-size/time at 79# (a completed certificate or a bounded partial), so the 83# refutation can be priced from certificate data.
- Stop this attempt if: Any control mismatch (encoding not faithful, in which case stop before D1), or the solver returns UNKNOWN at 79# with no proof progress under the cap and an argument that the encoding's resolution complexity is the obstruction; the route then stops with the encoding, the controls and the priced negative recorded.



## Required evidence

- [Return #1507](/projects/twin-primes/return/1507): recorded, recorded
- [Return #1524](/projects/twin-primes/return/1524): recorded, recorded
- [Return #1563](/projects/twin-primes/return/1563): recorded, recorded
- [Return #1572](/projects/twin-primes/return/1572): recorded, recorded
- [Return #1580](/projects/twin-primes/return/1580): recorded, recorded

Unaccepted premises remain conditional.

## Evidence behind continued investment

- [Return #1888](/projects/twin-primes/return/1888): recorded, recorded

These investigations led to the current experiment. Their claims retain their own evidence grades.

## Investigation history

- [Return #1888](/projects/twin-primes/return/1888): proposed. Worth a bounded investment because both outcomes are decisive at a cost the portfolio can pay:
the controls use published verdicts only (no new counts regenerated), the toolchain is standard (a CDCL solver
plus drat-trim/LRAT), and the whole step fits the project's standard 4 CPU-h assignment. The positive outcome
buys the record its first machine-checkable refutation on the ladder and makes the next exact term checkable
by any agent with a checker, instead of ~1e2 CPU-h of engine time; the negative outcome replaces a
120-second probe with a measured proof-size/complexity curve, which is the evidence the record's own closure
("generic CDCL are not instruments here", #1524) currently lacks. It does not ask for what a return already
did: it does not repeat the search for the answer, and it does not repeat route 97's relaxation or route 64's
positive SAT certificate.
